Chinese New Year: More Than a Holiday, It's a Logistics Challenge
For Amazon and e-commerce sellers, the calendar is marked by several high pressure events: Prime Day, Black Friday, and the Q4 rush. However, there is one event that is arguably more disruptive because it represents a total stop in the global supply chain: Chinese New Year (CNY).
In 2026, the Chinese New Year falls on February 17. While that date might look far off when you are planning your January sales, the reality of the supply chain means you are already in the danger zone.
At Proboxx, we see the same pattern every year. Sellers who treat CNY as a "vacation" often find themselves out of stock by March. Sellers who treat it as a systemic challenge to be managed are the ones who dominate their niches while competitors are left waiting for containers that never arrived.
This guide breaks down the reality of CNY logistics and how to build a strategy that keeps your brand sellable throughout the first quarter of 2026.
Understanding the Shutdown Timeline
One of the biggest mistakes a seller can make is assuming the holiday lasts only the official seven to ten days. In the world of manufacturing and logistics, CNY is a month-long event.
Phase 1: The Pre-Holiday Slowdown (Early January to Early February)
Long before the actual date, factories begin to slow down. Migrant workers, who make up the vast majority of the factory workforce, often start travelling back to their home provinces weeks in advance to beat the rush.
By early February, production lines that were running at 100% capacity might be down to 50%. This creates a massive backlog. If your PO (Purchase Order) is not finished by this point, it is unlikely to leave before the holiday begins.
Phase 2: The Total Shutdown (Mid February)
During the week of February 17, China effectively closed. Factories, domestic trucking companies, and many port offices stop operations. No new goods are produced, and no new cargo is moved to the ports.
Phase 3: The Post-Holiday Ramp-Up (Late February to Mid March)
This is the phase most sellers ignore, and it is where the most damage happens. When the holiday officially ends, factories do not instantly return to full capacity.
Many workers do not return to their jobs, opting for work closer to home or in different industries. Factories must undergo a period of rehiring and training. It can take three to four weeks after the holiday for a factory to reach the same production efficiency it had in December.
The Logistics Crunch: Rates and Space
As production slows, pressure on logistics increases. Every seller in the world is trying to get their goods on the last vessels leaving before the holiday.
1. The Rate Spike
In the four weeks leading up to CNY, ocean freight rates typically climb. Demand far exceeds supply. Carriers know that sellers are desperate to avoid a month of zero inventory, and prices reflect that desperation.
2. Rolled Containers and Port Congestion
Even if you book a shipment, there is no guarantee it will sail. "Rolling" occurs when a carrier bumps your container to a later vessel due to overbooking. During the CNY rush, being rolled can mean your container sits at the port for three weeks until the holiday ends and vessels resume their regular rotations.
The "Post-CNY" Hangover: Why You Might Be Late in March
The danger of CNY is not just about what happens in February. It is about the "Inventory Gap" in March and April.
If your factory re-opens on February 25, but they are short staffed, your next batch of goods might not be finished until March 20. If you add a 30-day transit time and 10 days for FBA check-in, those goods won't be sellable until May.
If you did not account for this slow ramp-up in your initial forecasting, you will experience a stockout exactly when your competitors are starting their spring promotions.
The Proboxx Strategy: How to Navigate the Crunch
Moving from reactive firefighting to intentional control requires a change in how you manage your decisions.
1. The "120 Day" Rule
Successful sellers plan their CNY inventory at least 120 days in advance. This means that by October or November, you should already have a clear picture of your Q1 sales forecast. You should place your "CNY Buffer" orders by early December to ensure they are completed and shipped before the February rush.
2. Inventory Allocation Logic
During a crunch, where you put your inventory matters as much as how much you have.
FBA Core Stock: Ensure your FBA levels are high enough to cover you through mid-April.
3PL Buffer: Instead of sending everything to FBA (and risking high storage fees or low restock limits), keep a portion of your stock in a US based 3PL like Proboxx. This allows you to drip feed inventory into FBA as needed without relying on international shipping during the volatile post-CNY period.
3. Implementing Operational Gates
Borrowing a concept from operations expert Dan Belder, use "Gates" to manage your production.
The PO Gate: Do not start production unless all specifications are locked. Changes made in January are a guaranteed way to miss the shipping cutoff.
The Inspection Gate: Ensure your quality control happens early. If a batch fails inspection on February 10, there is zero time to fix it before the factory closes.
4. Shipping Flexibility
If you find yourself running close to the deadline, do not rely on a single shipping method.
Split Shipping: Ship 20% of your stock via Air Freight or Super Express Sea to ensure immediate availability. Send the remaining 80% via standard Sea Freight to manage costs.
Alternative Routes: Consider East Coast vs. West Coast options depending on port congestion.
Conclusion: Intentional Control vs. Reactive Firefighting
Chinese New Year is a predictable event. It happens every year, yet every year thousands of sellers are surprised by the delays and the costs.
Managing inventory during this period is not a logistics problem- it is a capital and decision management problem. By placing orders earlier, understanding the true duration of the shutdown, and using strategic 3PL buffers, you can ensure your brand remains stable as the rest of the market chases containers.
At Proboxx, we provide the visibility and the infrastructure to help you bridge this gap.
Don't wait until February to realise you are late.
Start the conversation now.
Proboxx INC | Logistics and 3PL Solutions for Amazon Sellers