What Happens Next After the 90-Day Pause Is Over?
The much-anticipated 90-day tariff pause from President Trump gave U.S. importers a temporary breather—but the clock is ticking. The broader tariff relief that began on April 9 is already halfway through, while the more targeted China tariff freeze, announced May 12, will expire on August 14.
For now, tariffs on Chinese goods are temporarily reduced—from a staggering 145% to 30%. But let’s be clear: 30% is still incredibly steep, and importers are navigating this window with caution, speed, and anxiety.
At Proboxx, we call it what it is: a short breather that feels more like a sprint through a fog of uncertainty.
How Are SMBs Coping?
To get a pulse on how small-to-midsize businesses are holding up, we surveyed over 100 importers in mid-May. The results are sobering:
- 80% said they feel as anxious—or more—than they did in April, despite the pause.
- Nearly half rated tariff disruption a perfect 10/10, with an average impact score of 7.5/10.
- About 30% are exploring U.S.-based sourcing, but only 6% have made the shift so far—highlighting that while local production is appealing, few are ready to leap without policy clarity.
For many, this so-called pause isn’t much of a reprieve. As one webinar speaker put it bluntly:
“Thirty-percent U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are still higher than anything from the first Trump term—and now they cover 100% of exports.”
One business owner called the current state of tariffs “an existential threat,” while another shared they’re now “upside-down on a few deals.”
The Bullwhip Hits Again
Even if tariffs were to vanish tomorrow, that wouldn’t erase the chaos already in motion.
April’s uncertainty caused many importers to halt bookings, starving sailing schedules and leading carriers to cancel one in five voyages. Now, with May seeing a bounce-back in orders, shipping lines are scrambling to find capacity and equipment, triggering a textbook bullwhip effect that may lead to summer congestion and rate hikes.
This is why at Proboxx, we work with clients to simulate scenarios, build inventory buffers, and navigate freight bottlenecks before they hit. Reacting late isn’t an option anymore.
Coping Strategies on the Ground
Importers aren’t standing still. Here’s what we’re seeing from our community:
- 15% have already switched suppliers
- 26% front-loaded shipments to beat the mid-August cutoff
- 48% paused imports earlier this year and are now rushing to place holiday orders
Still, uncertainty around what happens post-August is stalling bigger moves like reshoring or long-term supplier shifts.
Are Consumers Feeling It?
Surprisingly, not yet. Businesses say Memorial Day sales remained mostly stable despite the chaos behind the scenes. The average expected impact on consumer spending was just 4.3 out of 10.
But that stability won’t last forever if tariffs jump back to 145%.
What Comes After August 14?
That’s the million-dollar question. If no new trade agreement or extension is announced, tariffs snap back to 145%—a rate most SMBs simply can’t absorb without hiking prices, delaying orders, or slashing margins.
As one importer told us:
“There’s no way to plan ahead. With daily changes and confusion—we couldn’t know what would happen next or how to price anything.”
📦 Want to get ahead of the tariff curve?
Book a free strategy session with Proboxx today. Let’s review your import exposure and build a plan that holds up—no matter what headlines hit next.