What You Didn’t See Coming—and What Might Hit Even Harder if Tariffs Drop
We’ve been tracking the same Trump Tariff breaking headlines with growing concern.
📉 Tariffs between China and the U.S. skyrocketed to 145%
📦 Shipping demand collapsed almost overnight
🚢 Carriers blanked sailings left and right to avoid losses
While those are the headline stories, what’s coming next is not getting nearly enough attention—and it could be even more disruptive.
With global trade volumes down, ocean carriers have been playing defense.
To cut their losses and stabilize rates, they’ve been adjusting capacity in a very deliberate way:
▪️ Canceling scheduled sailings
▪️ Skipping high-cost or low-volume ports
▪️ Parking vessels and keeping them idle
It’s a classic supply-and-demand response: less cargo means fewer ships in the water, which helps keep freight rates artificially stable—for now.
But what happens if tariffs suddenly drop, as suggested in yesterday’s U.S.–China trade announcement?
We're not heading back to business as usual. We're heading into a slingshot scenario.
🔁 When demand bounces back, it’s not going to be gradual.
It will be fast and aggressive, just like we saw during the early COVID recovery period. The key difference this time? The global logistics system isn’t prepared for it.
Carriers have pulled back on capacity. Ports are still facing labor and efficiency challenges. Equipment and container availability is inconsistent. In other words, the system is lean—and it won’t be able to expand overnight.
Here’s what that could mean for your business:
• Booking backlogs as everyone rushes to move goods
• Sudden rate surges with little to no notice
• Inventory delays across supply chains
• Disrupted Q4 and holiday season prep, especially for Amazon and eCommerce sellers
Many sellers are planning inventory moves under the assumption that lower tariffs will simply make shipping easier and cheaper. But if they don’t factor in the lag between demand recovery and capacity availability, they could be hit hard.
Planning ahead isn’t optional anymore—it’s critical. This is a freight timing and availability issue, not just a cost one.
The businesses that get ahead of this will be the ones:
• Locking in freight bookings early
• Diversifying shipping lanes and carrier options
• Building buffer stock now, not later
• Working closely with their 3PLs to anticipate volume surges
The ones who wait?
They’ll be stuck watching containers pile up, paying premium rates, and missing critical inventory windows—just as peak sales season arrives.
If you're an Amazon seller, DTC brand, or eComm operator relying on Q4 success, now’s the time to act. Yesterday’s tariff news might sound like relief—but the logistics impact is anything but.
Get ahead of the curve before the slingshot snaps back. Book a call with us today HERE to plan your strategy.